SAM MAGAZINE 3/25 | 5 Active diplomacy and tough standing to move Trump closer to European positions, a momentary change in Trump’s tone toward Russia, cautious European optimism and, in the end, confusion over what Russia and US had agreed to. In a span of a week the debate ranged from placing tough sanctions on Russia and a ceasefire first -approach, to a possible Zelensky-Putin meeting about a comprehensive peace deal. Competing game plans: Europe, Russia and the battle for Trump So where are we left in the aftermath of the historic red-carpet summitry between Trump and Putin in Alaska and the Washington meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy and his European friends? More or less where we were before: amidst a high-stakes diplomatic match between Russia and Europe over Donald Trump. Putin’s game plan can roughly be divided into four goals. Ideally, Putin would like to use the US-Russia talks to extract himself from the messy war in Ukraine and to legitimize Russia’s territorial and political demands to Kiev. Alternatively, Russia would like to turn Washington against Ukraine by placing the blame for collapsed talks on Zelenskyy and Kiev. Third, if fracturing the US-Ukraine relationship is not possible, Putin would be content to merely prolong the status quo and avoid new US sanctions or other pressure on Russia. Finally, at a minimum Putin is seeking to absorb any new sanctions to mitigate the pain on Russia’s war economy. Europe and Ukraine are engaged in their own diplomatic game. Ideally, they would like to turn Trump against Russia by demonstrating his bad faith in the peace process. A campaign of maximum pressure on Russia complemented by new US military support to Ukraine would have concrete effects on the battlefield. Second, if that is not possible, they seek to incrementally pull Trump closer to their positions on the war and to anchor the United States to Ukraine’s post-war security through the so-called coalition of the willing led by UK, France and Germany. Third, at a minimum Europeans wish to avoid Kiev being blamed for lack of progress in the negotiations and to continue their access to US weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. It’s impossible to say how Trump’s push for a peace deal will end. But it seems likely that there’s still a long way to go before the war concludes. In the meanwhile, Europe and Russia will continue their battle of narratives to win Trump over and, tragically, the war in Ukraine drags on. Joel Linnainmäki is a Research Fellow in the Finnish foreign policy, Northern European security, and Nato research programme at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. President of Finland Alexander Stubb attended a meeting on peace in Ukraine on Monday, August 18, 2025, in Washington, D.C., United States. The meeting was hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump. Photo: Riikka Hietajärvi/Embassy of Finland in Washington, D.C.
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