22 | SAM MAGAZINE 1/25 KOLUMNI would actually entail or what it might mean for the prospects for peace and stability of the Middle East. What is rapidly becoming clear is that this second approach to trying to make sense of President Trump is the correct one. To make sense of the chaos in Washington today, we all need to understand that President Trump does in fact mean exactly what he says, even if he does not grasp the full meaning or implications of it, or have any serious, strategic reason for saying it. What we are hearing is an unedited, unmediated, stream-of-consciousness flow of “good ideas,” not linked to any broader strategy. Some of these “good ideas” may in fact turn out to be good or even great ones. Some of them -- like his suggestion that we drink bleach -- probably won’t. But we doom ourselves to perpetual confusion and permanent frustration if we assume that these ideas and the various policies being announced are rooted in some larger, seriously analyzed, conception of international relations or foreign policy or are aimed at achieving a clearly envisioned set of goals or outcomes. What does all this imply, specifically for our efforts to make sense of American foreign policy? The bigger picture: What this means for U.S. policy To understand Donald Trump, do not try to connect the dots. They do not connect to form some larger picture. Accept and deal with each dot, by itself. Accepting and dealing with each dot of Trumpian foreign policy does not necessarily mean that America’s friends, partners, and adversaries have to concede on every issue. It does, however, mean that the usual approach to diplomacy – which involves looking creatively for ways simultaneously to address or solve both parties’ underlying security or economic concerns – will not work, because each issue is, in fact, sui generis and, for the most part, unconnected to any larger agenda. This said, however, it is nonetheless possible, and possibly useful, to identify certain assumptions that seem deeply embedded in the President’s thinking and which may help to explain the particular issues that seize his attention. The first is that foreigners, whether they are outside the United States or inside it (though particularly when they are inside it) are frightening and pose a very literal, physical threat to Americans. We need to pay particular attention to the President’s frequent allusion to crimes of violence, particularly rape. The second assumption is that one “wins” in international politics by running a trade surplus. Consistent with the old mercantilist view but without the same clear, underlying logic, the President assumes that whichever nation is the largest net exporter of its sweat and labor – that is, of its goods and services -- and which consequently has the biggest stockpile of cash at the end of the game, is the victor. A third assumption is that “owning” real estate is critical. And the fourth is that size – literal, physical size – or at least the appearance of size, matters. Bigness is good; smallness merits derision. The final takeaway, however, from the realization that this president needs to be taken literally but not seriously is that the chaos in and emanating from Washington is not likely to disappear. The absence of a clear overarching set of goals, or of a hierarchy of objectives and a rational, unified plan for achieving them, means that the surprises and inconsistencies coming out of Washington will be limited only by the human imagination – or, more specifically, by President Trump’s imagination. To make sense of what is happening, we need to take President Trump’s statements literally, but not seriously.
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